A long list of favorites at Pebble Beach

The 2010 U.S. Open will tee off in less than 12 hours at venerable Pebble Beach Golf Links, and all 156 players will be thinking about winning when they hit their first tee shot — they better be or they oughta just leave without hitting a shot.

The list of favorites is long, and here’s my pared-down version of it …

Phil Mickelson (Ladbrokes’ co-favorite at 8-1): “Lefty” wants a national title bad. He’s on the West Coast, his playpen early in his career, and he’s won the AT&T National Pro-Am played partly at Pebble three times. He WILL be in contention at the end, the question is, how many balls will be put in the ocean off the 18th tee?

Ernie Els (33-1): A classic player, coming to a classic layout. Classic guys have won all four prior Opens played at Pebble. With two wins on the year already, he’s playing his best golf right now.

Steve Stricker (40-1): He went to the ’06 Open at Winged Foot through stage qualifying with no status on any Tour worldwide. A top-5 finish qualfied him into other tournaments, and played well enough in them to get back on Tour and to the No. 4 world ranking. Guy plays his best when the big chips are down.

Geoff Ogilvy (50-1): Best combination for the U.S. Open — long AND straight off the tee, and deft touch with long irons. Explains his 2006 win.

Dustin Johnson (25-1): Scary long and has the game to play here, as he’s won the last two AT&T National Pro-Ams.

Lucas Glover (125-1): Defending Open champ, but this ends there. Pebble Beach doesn’t offer up rank-and-file major winners. Nothing to see here.

Fancy a Brit? Everyone’s on the Lee Westwood or Luke Donald bandwagon. Instead, I like Ross Fisher. He’s a plodder and patient, good traits for a U.S. Open track. Contended last year, and offers betting-window value at 125-1.

Kevin Phelan (amateur, 2500-1): Okay, you don’t know Kevin. But I played in the final group of my club championship with him in 2008. Of course, he clubbed me and the group like mince meat, but qualifiers like him make the U.S. Open so great. Anyone with an entry fee, a scratch handicap and a dream can play alongside …

Tiger Woods (8-1): Despite his latest troubles, you didn’t think a list of favorites wouldn’t include him, did you? The site of two of his greatest triumphs in 2000 (the AT&T and the Open) and a major tournament setting may put the smell of golf blood back in World Number One’s nostrils.

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